Midway through 2021, we shared our outlook on inflation, forecasting that the surge in prices was most likely temporary. Equipped with more time, data, and analysis, we are now reconsidering this idea of transitory inflation. In the table below, we present a useful framework to help identify and distinguish various short- and long-term inflation trends, and to help understand their future impacts on inflation in 2022 and beyond.
Q3 2021 Audiocast
Philip Hergel, senior quantitative analyst, discusses his thoughts on the market as we enter the final quarter of 2021:
Q2 2021 Audiocast
Steven Dray, senior portfolio manager and CIO, discusses his thoughts on the market as we enter the third quarter of 2021:
Inflation, Powdered Milk & Toothpaste
As an undergraduate student I recall my macroeconomics professor describing inflation as toothpaste, “Once it’s out of the tube, it’s extremely difficult to get back in.” Every time I brush my teeth these days I think of Professor Sims and the point he made; should inflation get out of control it becomes very difficult to rein in. Inflation in raw materials can create more inflation as higher input prices force higher output prices, which in turn leads to wage increases as workers demand higher pay so they can afford higher goods prices. Manufacturers then further increase prices to protect their profits and make up for higher labor costs. And so on.
Q1 2021 Audiocast
Jane Li, portfolio manager and senior equity analyst, and Sonia Kowal, president, discuss thoughts on the market as we enter the second quarter of 2021: